Tornado in Halifax County

With all of the devastation this week in eastern Virginia, we must not forget the EF-1 tornado that occurred in Halifax county, near Virgilina, the same afternoon. 

 Here's the storm survey done by folks at the National Weather Service in Blacksburg. I've highlighted some of the basic info.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG 

215 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2008  ...STORM DAMAGE IN HALIFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA CAUSED BY EF1 TORNADO...  A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY FOUND THAT STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN HALIFAX COUNTY VIRGINIA IN THE TOWN OF VIRGILINA MONDAY AFTERNOON WAS CAUSED BY AN EF1 TORNADO.  WINDS IN THE STORM WERE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 86 AND 109 MPH. THE STORM WAS ON THE GROUND FROM APPROXIMATELY 110 TO 115 PM. THE INITIAL DAMAGE STARTED JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSECTIONS OF HIGHWAYS 96 AND 49. THIS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TOWN OF VIRGILINA. THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE MILE TRAVELING TO THE NORTHEAST. SPORADIC DAMAGE OCCURRED FURTHER NORTHEAST ON GILLS MOUNTAIN ROAD FROM STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AT THE WIDEST POINT...THE TORNADO WAS 240 YARDS WIDE.  6 HOMES WERE DAMAGED...AND NUMEROUS LARGE TREES WERE DOWNED AND SNAPPED.  THE NATIONAL WEATHER WANTS TO EXTEND IT THANKS TO THE VIRGINIA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...AND HALIFAX COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN THE STORM SURVEY.

---END OF RELEASE---

Tornadoes are common in Virginia, in fact the state typically sees around 6-8 per year. This one was rather wide, and there was never a Tornado warning issued.

Virgilina is near the North Carolina border, and the nearest Doppler radar is in Floyd county (See Map Below). Since the earth is curved the radar beam is shooting too high into the cloud, detecting circulation near the earth's surface can be challenging. You can also see on the map where the next closest NWS radar site is, in Wakefield VA. We'll cover this topic on a future edition of Beyond the Forecast.

View Larger Map

We are so lucky more people didn't get killed out of either of the nearly 10 tornadoes that touched down Monday. Time of day played a major part. Had people been asleep at the time, we'd probably be looking at many more injuries and fatalities. 

With this tragedy on people's minds, there's no better time to prepare for severe weather in southwest Virginia. Tornadoes CAN HAPPEN HERE. They have in the past and will again. The mountains offer little shelter from these massive creatures, and it better to have an evacuation plan ready now, than figure out where you'd go as the storm is minutes away. 

Here are some ideas on where to hide, along with a history of Virginia's tornadoes.

Be safe and welcome May. --Meteorologist Brent Watts

Tornados Strike Eastern VA

So far this evening (Monday) at least 3 tornados have been confirmed by the National Weather Service south of Richmond, extending east toward Suffolk and Norfolk. 

The same front that produced benefitial rain for southwest Virginia, ran into some very unstable air as it moved east. The result? A tornado outbreak that left 1 dead and over 200 injured. Looking at the photos below (WTKR-TV) it's a miracle their weren't more that were hurt. 

• Compared with other States, Virginia ranks number 29 for frequency of Tornadoes
  
• We saw more tornados in Virginia today than we did the entire year of 2007. 

Here's the breakdown from last year. 

• Total number of tornados (2)
• Total people killed (0)
• Total damage estimated ($80,000)

-Meteorologist Brent Watts

The Weather is Looking Even Better In HD

High Definition. You either get it, or you don't. But after you see what WDBJ7 news looks like in HD, you definitely want it. Our loyal Weather blog fans are getting a sneak peak at the unreleased  SkyTracker7 HD Weather look. 

Over the past several months, we've taken viewer input and started working on a new and improved set of HD weather graphics that are both eye-popping, yet meteorologically relevant.  The results are, in my opinion, gorgeous.  

SkyTracker7 Weather will be the ONLY local weathercast in high definition. 

As you can see from the new 7-Day planner above, we've listened to the viewers who thought our old 7-Day was a bit hard to read. Now we've changed to an all horizontal format....and just wait and see what we've done with the weekend!

We didn't get rid of the region-by-region forecast, though you will notice an improved look that breaks down the temperatures in more detail. This makes it a bit easier to see what your hometown can expect. The pollen forecast, and water levels are still there too.  Plus new additions that are HDelightful. 

While vivid, it's not just about a pretty picture. We have also upgraded to the latest release of SkyTracker radar analysis software. This means you're not getting technology that is several years old. You're getting the most up to date  real-time 3D radar, storm tracking, wind and hail detection, FutureRadar and Hurricane Tracker.

Oh, did we mention Live neighborhood current conditions and cameras from WeatherBug HD. It's all still there too. 

We're very proud of the new look and hope you will give us your feedback (good or bad).  Our goal is to continue to deliver the caliber of Hometown weather Chief Meteorologist Robin Reed branded over 25 years ago.  The difference is we're making history by bringing it to you in state-of-the-art, widescreen HD format. 

Keep watching to see the new graphics hit the airwaves. 

--Meteorologist Brent Watts

Above Average Hurricane Season Predicted

Noted hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray, from Colorado State University, updated his 2008 hurricane predictions, stating the Atlantic Hurricane Season would be "well above average."

He comments rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will bring help fuel the increase, which includes four major storms.

Dr. Gray has been issuing hurricane predictions for over 20 years. Recently, he and his staff have been criticized for not quite hitting the mark.

The 2007 Atlantic season saw 15 named storms, six of which became hurricanes. Two were major storms. Not quite as active as Gray and others predicted.

Here are some of the highlights from Dr. Grays outook.

• Calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic in 2008
• Calls for 8 hurricanes
• Calls for 4 intense hurricanes (CAT 3 or higher)
• Probability that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the United States coastline is 69%

There's an average of 5.9 hurricanes that form in the Atlantic each year. Remember, these are forecasts based on many uncertainties. You should always be prepared.

U.S. government forecasters at NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will issue their seasonal outlook in late May. Not matter how many storms are predicted, it only takes one to make the whole season a bad one.

The best advice? Be prepared.

--Meteorologist Brent Watts

Hurricane Forecaster May Raise 2008 Predictions

This is an iteresting post from Reuters regarding Dr. Bill Gray's (Colorado State University's hurricane forecaster) 2008 hurricane season predictions. Several atmospheric conditions are setting up that could mean an active year in the Atlantic. See below. --Meteorologist Brent Watts

The noted Colorado State University forecast team expects an above average Atlantic hurricane season and may raise its prediction of 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes when it updates its outlook next week, the team's founder Bill Gray said on Wednesday.

La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for hurricane activity, Gray told Reuters at the U.S. National Hurricane Conference.

"We're expecting an above average season," Gray said. "The big question we have is, are we going to raise the numbers from our December forecast? We might."

"We're not going to lower the numbers," he said.

The average hurricane season produces about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes -- a standard that was blown out of the water in the record-busting season of 2005, when 28 storms formed, including the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, Katrina.

The Colorado State team issues forecasts several times a year. In December, it said it expected the 2008 season starting June 1 to produce 13 tropical storms, of which seven would become hurricanes and three would be major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

Gray said La Nina, a cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific that can enhance conditions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, will be "on the cold side."

"Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.

Spring is Springing Soon!

The first day of Spring arrives in the early morning hours of March 21st, but it looks like we'll see cooler weather instead of warmer temperatures as we kick it off. NOAA released the spring outlook through June regarding drought outlook, precipitation and temperatures. To sum it all up: Near-normal Temperatures,
Near-normal Precipitation and Average Flood Risk.

Basically, everything will be normal. Yeah, right! Check out the images for a closer look at the NOAA Spring Forecasts.

A 2007-2008 Winter was certainly uneventful, with below normal snowfall. But, we did see our fair share of rain. We'll have the complete rundown of winter precipitation and temperature numbers later this week.