Above Average Hurricane Season Predicted

Noted hurricane researcher Dr. William Gray, from Colorado State University, updated his 2008 hurricane predictions, stating the Atlantic Hurricane Season would be "well above average."

He comments rising water temperatures in the Atlantic will bring help fuel the increase, which includes four major storms.

Dr. Gray has been issuing hurricane predictions for over 20 years. Recently, he and his staff have been criticized for not quite hitting the mark.

The 2007 Atlantic season saw 15 named storms, six of which became hurricanes. Two were major storms. Not quite as active as Gray and others predicted.

Here are some of the highlights from Dr. Grays outook.

• Calls for 15 named storms in the Atlantic in 2008
• Calls for 8 hurricanes
• Calls for 4 intense hurricanes (CAT 3 or higher)
• Probability that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the United States coastline is 69%

There's an average of 5.9 hurricanes that form in the Atlantic each year. Remember, these are forecasts based on many uncertainties. You should always be prepared.

U.S. government forecasters at NOAA and the National Hurricane Center will issue their seasonal outlook in late May. Not matter how many storms are predicted, it only takes one to make the whole season a bad one.

The best advice? Be prepared.

--Meteorologist Brent Watts

Hurricane Forecaster May Raise 2008 Predictions

This is an iteresting post from Reuters regarding Dr. Bill Gray's (Colorado State University's hurricane forecaster) 2008 hurricane season predictions. Several atmospheric conditions are setting up that could mean an active year in the Atlantic. See below. --Meteorologist Brent Watts

The noted Colorado State University forecast team expects an above average Atlantic hurricane season and may raise its prediction of 13 tropical storms and seven hurricanes when it updates its outlook next week, the team's founder Bill Gray said on Wednesday.

La Nina cool-water conditions in the Pacific and higher sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic are contributing to enhanced conditions for hurricane activity, Gray told Reuters at the U.S. National Hurricane Conference.

"We're expecting an above average season," Gray said. "The big question we have is, are we going to raise the numbers from our December forecast? We might."

"We're not going to lower the numbers," he said.

The average hurricane season produces about 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes -- a standard that was blown out of the water in the record-busting season of 2005, when 28 storms formed, including the hurricane that swamped New Orleans, Katrina.

The Colorado State team issues forecasts several times a year. In December, it said it expected the 2008 season starting June 1 to produce 13 tropical storms, of which seven would become hurricanes and three would be major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

Gray said La Nina, a cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific that can enhance conditions for hurricane activity in the Atlantic, will be "on the cold side."

"Also, the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic particularly off Iberia and off northwest Africa, they are very warm, much like they were at this time in 1995 and 2005 when we had very active seasons," he said.