Groundhog Day Predictions

The big day is coming soon! Yep, can you believe it's already Groundhog Day (Feb 2)? If you're not familiar with what happens, here's the deal:

The official groundhog (also known as a woodchuck, marmot or ground squirrel) "Punxsutawney Phil" comes out of his burrow (glorified cage) the morning of Feb.2. He'll either see his shadow and run back in, or not see his shadow and run back in.

NO SHADOW: Look for an early spring

SHADOW: 6 more weeks of winter.

Obviously, it's more tradition than science. I mean, who would think a groundhog can predict the fate of winter better than a meteorologist? Let me re-phrase that question....

The tradition dates back the the 1800s and may derive from this Scottish poem:

As the light grows longer
The cold grows stronger
If Candlemas be fair and bright
Winter will have another flight
If Candlemas be cloud and snow
Winter will be gone and not come again
A farmer should on Candlemas day
Have half his corn and half his hay
On Candlemas day if thorns hang a drop
You can be sure of a good pea crop

I won't even begin the translation, because I don't speak Scottish (ha!). There have been many famous Groundhogs through the years. Here's a list from Wikipedia. I'd like to add at the bottom, "Petie" found under the weather deck last August. He predicted all our vegetables would be eaten before the end of the summer. Turns out...he was right.

Punxsutawney Phil found in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania
Wiarton Willie found in Wiarton, Ontario
Staten Island Chuck found in New York City, New York
General Beauregard Lee, PhD found in Atlanta, Georgia
Malverne Mel and Malverne Melissa found in Malverne, New York
Brandon Bob of Brandon, Manitoba
Balzac Billy of Balzac, Alberta
Shubenacadie Sam of Shubenacadie, Nova Scotia
Gary the Groundhog of Kleinburg, Ontario
Spanish Joe of Spanish, Ontario
Sir Walter Wally of Raleigh, North Carolina
Pardon Me Pete of Tampa, Florida
Jimmy the Groundhog of Sun Prairie, Wisconsin
Octoraro Orphie of Quarryville, Pennsylvania

If you'd like to visit the official Groundhog day history site CLICK HERE. Otherwise, we all hope you have a Happy Groundhog Day! ---Meteorologist Brent Watts

Snow Rollers and Other Rare Finds

SNOW ROLLERS
How do you like your doughnuts? How about glazed in ice? While these interesting features look like giant doughnuts, the circular snowballs are better known as snow rollers.

Snow rollers form under very specific weather conditions. One requirement is a crusty layer of snow on the ground to which new snow will not stick. A light accumulation of loose, wet snow on top of the crusty snow can then roll up when blown by gusty winds that serve to scoop it up off the crusty layer.

As gravity pulls a clump down, it usually rolls down the hill and collapses. Sometimes it will not roll at all, and will come down in an avalanche of snow. But if the snow is the perfect density and temperature, it rolls down leaving a hole in the center.

The weather conditions have to be utterly perfect for the rollers to form. In fact, most go their whole life without ever seeing one.

The National Weather Service office in Lincoln, Ill., put together a nice webpage on snow rollers, with a nice formation explanation as well as photos of a snow roller event that occurred in Feb. 2003.

SUN and MOON HALOS
Halos are a group of optical phenomenon due to the reflection or refraction of solar light on ice crystals suspended in the atmosphere (cirrus clouds, thin snow, icy fog, blown snow). The basic halos take the form of circles around the sun, at 22° (more common and brighter) and 46°.

The ring around the Moon is caused by the refraction of Moonlight (which of course is reflected sunlight) from ice crystals in the upper atmosphere. The shape of the ice crystals results in a focusing of the light into a ring. Since the ice crystals typically have the same shape, namely a hexagonal shape, the Moon ring is almost always the same size. Less typical are the halos that may be produced by different angles in the crystals. They can create halos with an angle of 46 degrees.

MOON RING FOLKLORE Folklore has it that a ring around the moon signifies bad weather is coming, and in many cases this may be true. So how can rings around the moon be a predictor of weather to come? The ice crystals that cover the halo signify high altitude, thin cirrus clouds that normally precede a warm front by one or two days. Ancient folklore says the number of stars within a moon halo indicate the number days before bad weather will arrive. I've also heard, if snow is coming, the number of stars within the ring will indicate the amount of snow (in inches) we'll get. Give it a try the next time you observe a moon halo. Let me know how it turns out. --Meteorologist Brent Watts

Life's A Beach!

Now that we've had a little bit of snow, I'm getting antsy for some beach weather once again. My neighbors just got back from a cruise where they went on a zip-line through a tropical rainforest.

So, to satisfy the cravings of beach-seekers in the middle of southwest Virginia winters, I propose we build an indoor beach. Perhaps like the one in Japan.

The Ocean Dome, the world’s largest indoor beach, Kyushu Island, Japan — 987 feet in length and 382 feet wide, with a height of 128 feet, it can accommodate 10,000 people.

A heated ocean sends 13,500 tons of salt-free water sweeping across 600 tons of polished marble chips that constitute a 278-foot long shoreline, ringed by a three-story promenade of shops. Every fifteen minutes, the volcano smokes to life. Every hour, on the hour, it spews fake flames. Now THAT'S what I'm talking about! 

The odd part is that people pay around $50 (American dollars) to go to the indoor beach, when there's a free one just a few hundred feet away.

We could build it on the site near the Roanoke Civic Center where the amphitheater was (then wasn't, then was, then wasn't) supposed to go. I think I'll send my proposal to the Mayor's office.

Jokes aside, it's a great design and if I had the money (and could speak Japanese) I'd like to go see it in person. Until then, I'll sit here in and look at the thermometer that says 14 degrees, and dream of lapping waves, sandcastles and bikini clad....

TO BE CONTINUED! MY WIFE WALKED IN. :)

Enjoy the cold weather

-Brent

Woolly Worm Not Far Off The Mark

Late last fall on Beyond the Forecast, I brought you the story of how the colors on the Woolly Worm (or caterpillar to be more accurate) have been used for years to predict the outcome of the upcoming winter.

So, after the official Woolly Worm was, umm, "crowned" in Banner Elk, North Carolina, I decided to keep track of the predictions and compare them to the actual conditions.

So far, the caterpillar is not doing well. Here's the breakdown for the first

Week 1
WOOLLY FORECAST: Cold and Snowy
ACTUAL: Showers & Seasonable

Week 2
WOOLLY FORECAST: Cold And Snowy
ACTUAL: Cold & Mtn. Snow

Week 3
WOOLLY FORECAST: Cold And Snowy
ACTUAL: Mild and Showers

Week 4
WOOLLY FORECAST: Cold And Snowy
ACTUAL: Cold And Snowy

Track the woolly worm's progress through the rest of winter.

The Blizzard Of 1966

Winters in southwest Virginia are often unpredictable. It can feel like Miami, or even Maine all in the same week.All it takes is one big storm to change the perception of an a winter.

The winter of 1965-66 started out much like this winter. Only 1/2" of snow had fallen at the Roanoke Regional Airport through January 1st.The winter of 1965-66 was much like this year, only a half inch of snow fell before January 1st. The weather turned rapidly raw after the New Year. A blizzard struck Virginia and the Northeastern United States. It was the second snowstorm to hit Virginia in a week. At the same time snow drifts formed, arctic air was settling in dropping temperatures into the teens.

January 1966 ended up going down as Roanoke's snowiest on record with 41 inches.
On the other hand, the Roanoke Valley has been through winters with very little snowfall.
In the winter of 1975-76, only ONE INCH of snow fell in Roanoke. Below are some of the least snowiest years.We're getting all the ingredients for a major winter storm, cold air and moisture, but they just can't seem to coordinate their visit. Don't put away your sled just yet. There's always a chance.

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has compiled data for southwest Virginia winters. Below you'll find some of the statistics.

Average Snowfall = 22.9 inches
Greatest Snow = 22.2 inches in Jan. 1996
Snowiest Month = 41.2 inches in Jan. 1966
Coldest Temperature = -11°F in Jan. 1985

Click video player below for raw film footage of the snow storm of 1966.