Tuesday, October 9, 2007

La Nina Means Mild Winter Weather.

NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States. The report was released Tuesday (Oct 9th) and paints a bleak picture for southwest Virginia.


Movie of sea surface temperatures, January 1, 2007 - October 3, 2007. Purple and blue colors represent lower-than-average sea surface temperatures.

It appears La Nina is to "blame" for the mild winter that is forecast for the south and mid-Atlantic. La Nina is marked by abnormally cool ocean water in the equatorial Pacific. You can read the full report/forecast here, but here are some of the highlights:

  • In the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic,temperatures are expected to be above average in response to the long-term warming trend. Snowfall for the region will depend on other climate factors, which are difficult to anticipate more than one-to-two weeks in advance.
  • The drought-plagued Southeast is likely to remain drier-than-average due to La NiƱa, while temperatures are expected to be above average.

With this said, this certainly doesn't mean we won't see any snow. Also, despite forecasting above average temperatures, you can count on some very cold periods this winter. This is a forecast, an educated prediction of what will happen 2 to 4 months down the road. Don't let your snow shovels hibernate this winter. Chances are you'll need them at least once.

--Meteorologist Brent Watts

Learn more about La Nina

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